The latest ECU Poll, conducted October 24-29, shows former President Donald Trump with a lead of two percentage points over Vice President Kamala Harris among early and likely voters in North Carolina, 50% to 48% (with just over 1% indicating that they plan to support an independent, minor-party, or a write-in candidate). The margin of error in the poll is +/- 3. These results are similar to a previous ECU Poll, conducted September 23 through 26, that also showed Trump ahead of Harris by two percentage points, 49% to 47%.
In the race for Governor of North Carolina, State Attorney General Josh Stein leads Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson 55% to 40% among early and likely voters, with 5% supporting an independent, minor-party, or write-in candidate. Stein has maintained his wide lead over Robinson since late September, when he held a 17-percentage point advantage.
The latest ECU Poll finds that Stein is winning a significant share of the vote from women. Among female voters, Stein holds a 25-percentage point lead over Robinson, 60% to 35%. Stein also is ahead of Robinson among men, although his lead is smaller at four percentage points, 49% to 45%. By comparison, Trump continues to lead Harris among men, 54% to 44%, while Harris holds a 52% to 47% advantage among women.
Among other key segments of the electorate, Trump wins the support of white voters by almost a 2 to 1 margin (64% to 34%), whereas Harris leads among African American voters by nearly a 9 to 1 margin (89% to 10%). Voters break in nearly opposite directions by education level and age. Those with a four-year college degree support Harris over Trump by a 56% to 42% margin, while those without a four-year college degree support Trump over Harris by a 55% to 44% margin. Among likely voters under the age of 45, Harris leads Trump, 57% to 41%, while Trump leads among those 45 and over, 56% to 43%.
When asked to identify the most important issue in deciding their vote in the upcoming election, 27% answered inflation and/or the overall cost of living, which is slightly down from our previous poll, when it was 30%. Other top issues that voters selected in the current poll include the economy in general (24%), abortion (14%), border security (12%), affordability of health care (4%), climate change and/or the environment (4%), and violent crime and/or public safety (3%). Of those that cited inflation/cost of living or the economy in general as their top issue, Trump tops Harris 65% to 34%. Of those who listed abortion as their top issue, Harris leads Trump 83% to 15%.
Overall, 41% of likely voters in North Carolina approve of President Biden’s overall job performance, while 54% disapprove (with 5% who are not sure). Democratic Governor Roy Cooper performs better than Biden with a 51% approval rating and a 37% disapproval rating (with 12% reporting they are not sure).
In assessing the results of the poll, Dr. Peter Francia, Director of the ECU Center for Survey Research, commented, “Both the Trump and Harris campaigns have invested significant resources in North Carolina to win its 16 votes in the Electoral College. The reason for that is clear: North Carolina is still too close to call, and its electoral votes could be critical in deciding the winner of the presidential election.”
Methodology
This ECU Poll was conducted October 24 through 29, 2024. The results in this poll are based on 1,250 completed responses to the poll’s questionnaire from a random sample of North Carolina registered voters who are likely to vote in the 2024 general election. Respondents completed the poll either through cell phone via MMS-to-web text (N=703) or through landline phone via Interactive Voice Response (N=547). The firm, Aristotle, provided the sample for both the cell phone and landline phone lists. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample of likely voters in this poll is +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. (Please note that all results of subsamples, such as those based on demographics or other factors, such as party identification, have a higher margin of sampling error.)
The data in this poll were weighted to a likely population of general election voters in North Carolina based on various demographics, including age, education level, race/ethnicity, gender, region, party identification, and recalled vote from the 2020 presidential election. The results reported from the poll round off all percentages to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentage totals in some instances may be slightly higher or lower than 100%. The ECU Center for Survey Research, which directed this poll, is a member of the AAPOR Transparency Initiative (TI). For additional information about the ECU Poll and its methodology, please refer to the documentation provided in the TI report.
