The latest ECU Poll, conducted October 18 through 22, shows former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by thirteen points among likely voters in South Carolina, 55% to 42%. (The poll’s margin of error is +/- 3%.) Only 2% remain undecided, with another 1% indicating that they plan to support an independent, minor-party, or write-in candidate.
When asked to identify the most important issue in deciding their vote in the upcoming election, the top issue was inflation and/or the overall cost of living at 31%, followed by the economy in general at 24%. Of the likely voters who cited either inflation/cost of living or the economy as their top issue, 66% support Trump, while 32% support Harris.
Additional issues of top concern included border security and/or immigration (14%) and abortion (12%). Of those who selected border security and/or immigration, Trump holds a 91% to 6% advantage over Harris. Harris, however, leads Trump among those who identified abortion as their top issue, 78% to 21%. Other top issues that respondents selected in the poll included affordability of health care (5%), violent crime and/or public safety (2%), and climate change and/or the environment (1%).
The results of the poll also reveal some significant differences among key segments of the electorate. Trump leads among male voters by 22 percentage points (59% to 37%) and has a smaller, 6-point advantage among female voters (52% to 46%). Additionally, Trump leads among white voters, 73% to 25%, closely matching his 73% to 26% advantage over Biden in exit polls from four years ago. By comparison, Harris garners significant support from African American voters, who favor her over Trump by a margin of 87% to 12%.
Trump leads among middle-aged to senior voters (45 years or older) as well, 59% to 39%, whereas Harris holds just a 1-point advantage among younger voters (18 to 44 years old), 48% to 47%. Voters are further divided by education level. Among those who are not four-year college graduates, Trump leads by a significant margin, 58% to 39%. Trump’s lead over Harris, however, falls to 3 percentage points, 50% to 47% among those who are college-educated with a four-year degree.
Overall, 33% of likely voters in South Carolina approve of President Biden’s overall job performance, whereas 59% disapprove (with 8% who are not sure). Republican Governor Henry McMaster performs better than Biden with a 47% approval rating and a 31% disapproval rating (with 22% reporting they are not sure).
In assessing the results of the poll, Dr. Peter Francia, Director of the ECU Center for Survey Research, commented, “A majority of voters in South Carolina are focused on economic issues. Inflation and cost of living, in particular, are top concerns. In this environment, Donald Trump seems on his way to winning South Carolina in 2024 by a margin similar to his victory in 2020 in the Palmetto state.”
Methodology
This ECU Poll was conducted October 18 through October 22, 2024. The results in this poll are based on 950 completed responses to the poll’s questionnaire from a random sample of South Carolina registered voters who are likely to vote in the 2024 general election. Respondents completed the poll either through cell phone via MMS-to-web text (N= 458) or through landline phone via Interactive Voice Response (N=492). The firm, Aristotle, provided the sample for both the cell phone and landline phone lists. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample of likely voters in this poll is +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. (Please note that all results of subsamples, such as those based on demographics or other factors, such as party identification, have a higher margin of sampling error.)
The data in this poll were weighted to a likely population of general election voters in South Carolina based on various demographics, including age, education level, race/ethnicity, gender, region, party identification, and recalled vote from the 2020 presidential election. The results reported from the poll round off all percentages to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentage totals in some instances may be slightly higher or lower than 100%. The ECU Center for Survey Research, which directed this poll, is a member of the AAPOR Transparency Initiative (TI). For additional information about the ECU Poll and its methodology, please refer to the documentation provided in the TI report.
