The latest ECU Poll, conducted May 31-June 3, shows former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden by five percentage points, 48% to 43%, among registered voters in North Carolina who indicated that they planned to vote in the election. With Election Day five months from now, just 4% remain undecided. Some 3% indicated that they plan to support an independent, minor-party, or write-in candidate (with the remaining 1% opting not to answer how they plan to vote in the election).
In the election for Governor of North Carolina, registered voters are near evenly divided, with 44% supporting Democrat and State Attorney General Josh Stein compared to 43% for Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson. Another 11% of registered voters, who indicated that they plan to vote in the election, are still undecided, with 2% supporting an independent, minor-party, or write-in candidate (and the remaining 1% opting not to answer).
Of the two Republican candidates, Trump performs better than Robinson among voters who consider themselves to be independent or “something else” (other than Democrat or Republican). Among these independent voters, Trump and Biden are near even (41% to 42% respectively). Robinson, however, trails Stein, 46% to 35%, with those same voters in the race for governor.
When asked to identify the most important issue facing people in North Carolina today, 42% answered inflation and/or the overall cost of living. Other issues included the economy in general (17%), new state law on abortion (13%), border security (10%), violent crime and/or public safety (6%), affordability of health care (6%), and climate change and/or the environment (3%). With inflation as the dominant issue, North Carolinians gave low marks to President Joe Biden. Statewide, only 37% of registered voters in North Carolina approve of President Biden’s overall job performance, while 55% disapprove (with 7% who are not sure). Democratic Governor Roy Cooper performs better than Biden with a 46% approval rating and a 39% disapproval rating (with 15% reporting they are not sure).
When registered voters were asked whether Donald Trump’s guilty verdicts for falsifying business records to conceal hush money payments would make them more likely to vote for Trump in November, less likely to vote for Trump, or if it would make no difference, 32% said they are now more likely to vote for Trump because of the verdict compared to 29% who answered that they are now less likely to vote for Trump. The largest percentage, some 37%, indicated that the guilty verdicts will have no impact on their vote (with 2% who answered that they do not know). Among independent voters, the impact of the verdicts was near evenly split with 26% who reported they are more likely now to vote for Trump and 27% who said they are less likely now to vote for Trump. Some 45% of independents indicated that the verdicts would have no impact on their vote in the presidential election.
Overall, 37% of registered voters in North Carolina have “a lot of confidence” that the 2024 election results will accurately reflect the votes that are cast. About one-third (34%) report having “some confidence” that the results will accurately reflect the vote, and almost one-in-four (23%) have “no confidence” in the election results (with 7% who are unsure). Voters seem fairly divided on this question along party lines, with 65% of Democrats reporting “a lot of confidence” in the results while only 12% of Republicans feel similarly. More than a third of Republicans (36%) have “no confidence” in the vote count, while only 6% of Democrats have no confidence.
In assessing the election results of the poll, Dr. Peter Francia, Director of the ECU Center for Survey Research, remarked, “Republicans have won the presidential vote in North Carolina in every election except one (in 2008) since 1980. In light of that history and Donald Trump’s current five-point lead in North Carolina, it seems fair to conclude that Trump is the current favorite to win in North Carolina in 2024. The race for governor, however, is much less clear. Josh Stein performs well with independent voters, but Trump’s strength and coattails will surely help Mark Robinson.”
Methodology
This poll was conducted May 31 through June 3, 2024. The sample consisted of completed responses from 1,332 registered voters in North Carolina, with a Credibility Interval (CI), similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The data were weighted by age, education, race, gender, region, party identification and 2024 election modeling. The data for the poll were drawn an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=332), from a cellphone sample of SMS-to-web (N=914) provided by ReconMr, and an online panel provided by Cint (N=86).
