A poll from East Carolina University’s Center for Survey Research, conducted March 8-11, shows State Senator Matt Dolan ahead of businessman Bernie Moreno among likely Republican voters in the March 19 Ohio primary election for U.S. Senate, 33% to 31%, followed by Secretary of State Frank LaRose with 23%. Among the 14% who remain undecided, a plurality indicates that they lean most toward voting for Dolan (47%) compared to 32% for LaRose and 21% for Moreno.
In a hypothetical general election matchup in November, Dolan leads his Democratic opponent, incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown, 43% to 41%. However, against Moreno and LaRose, Brown holds a 4-point and 5-point advantage respectively (45% to 41% against Moreno and 45% to 40% against LaRose).
The poll also shows President Joe Biden with an approval rating of 34% in Ohio, with 59% disapproval.
In a statewide matchup for president, former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden among likely general election voters in Ohio by ten percentage points, 48% to 38%, followed by Robert Kennedy Jr. at 5%, and Jill Stein and Cornell West both with 1% (2% other independent/minor-party/write-in candidate, and 7% undecided).
In the race for president, Trump leads Biden among female voters in Ohio, 45% to 39%, and among independent voters, 42% to 35%. And, although Biden leads Trump among likely African American voters, 75% to 19%, the margins have slipped from exit poll results in the 2020 election where Biden beat Trump 91% to 8% among the same demographic. Biden’s advantage among young voters under the age of 30 has likewise declined from four years ago – falling from a 19-point advantage in 2020 (57% to 38%) to a 1-point advantage currently (39% to 38%). Of note, Robert Kennedy Jr. wins 10% of the vote among these young voters. Trump leads Biden among all other age demographics, with a 6-point advantage among 30 to 44 year-olds (45% to 39%), an 11-point advantage among 45 to 64 year-olds (49% to 38%), and a 20-point advantage among those 65 years of age or older (55% to 35%).
“Although the Republican primary race for Senate in Ohio remains too close to call, our polling results suggest that Matt Dolan may give Republicans the best chance to unseat Sherrod Brown in the November general election,” said Jay Morris, Senior Polling Scientist for the ECU Center for Survey Research. “Our polling also points to the strong probability that the November Senate race will be very close regardless of who emerges as the Republican nominee.”
Methodology
This poll was conducted March 8-11, 2024. The sample consisted of completed responses from 1,298 likely voters in Ohio, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The CI for the subsample of likely Republican voters was +/- 4.6 percentage points. Percentages in this report our rounded to the nearest whole number, and may not equal 100% in frequency distributions. The data were weighted by age, education, race, gender, region, mode, and 2024 election modeling. The crosstabulation analysis rounds weighted counts in each category to their nearest whole number. The data for the poll were drawn from an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=313), from a cellphone sample of SMS-to-web (N=525) provided by Promark Research, and an online panel provided by Cint (N=460).
