The latest ECU Poll, conducted October 28 through 31, shows former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris locked in an extremely tight contest among early and likely voters in Georgia. The poll results show Trump winning 50% of the vote compared to 49% for Harris, with another 1% indicating that they plan to support an independent, minor-party, or write-in candidate. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 3%.
When asked to identify the most important issue in deciding their vote in the upcoming election, the top issue was inflation and/or the overall cost of living at 29%, followed by the economy in general at 20%. Of the likely voters who cited either inflation/cost of living or the economy as their top issue, 63% support Trump, while 35% support Harris. Additional issues of top concern included border security and/or immigration (13%) abortion (12%), affordability of health care (4%), violent crime and/or public safety (3%), and climate change and/or the environment (3%).
Voters remain polarized by political party. Some 97% of Republican voters support Trump, while 97% of Democratic voters support Harris. Among independents, Harris leads Trump, 53% to 43% -- a margin that closely matches the advantage that Joe Biden held with independents four years ago (53% to 44%).
The results of the poll also reveal some significant differences among key segments of the electorate. Among men, Trump holds an advantage of 15 percentage points, 57% to 42%, whereas Harris leads Trump among women by eleven percentage points, 55% to 44%. Additionally, Trump leads among white voters, 71% to 28%, closely matching his 69% to 30% advantage over Biden in exit polls from four years ago. By comparison, Harris holds a significant lead among African American women (96% to 3%) and has closed strongly in the campaign’s final weeks with African American men (88% to 11%).
Voters break in nearly opposite directions by age. Trump leads among middle-aged to senior voters (45 years or older) by 11 percentage points, 55% to 44%. In comparison, Harris holds a 12-percentage point advantage among younger voters (18 to 44 years old), 55% to 43%.
Overall, 37% of likely voters in Georgia approve of President Biden’s job performance, whereas 52% disapprove (with 11% reporting they are not sure). Republican Governor Brian Kemp performs better than Biden with a 53% approval rating and a 27% disapproval rating (with 20% reporting they are not sure).
In assessing the results of the poll, Dr. Peter Francia, Director of the ECU Center for Survey Research, commented, “The presidential election in Georgia looks very similar to four years ago. It’s extremely close. Trump leads on the two most important issues to voters – inflation and the economy. If he wins in Georgia that will be a significant factor. If Harris wins in Georgia, her ability to win independents by a margin similar to what Joe Biden accomplished in 2020 will be a major reason.”
Methodology
This ECU Poll was conducted October 28 through October 31, 2024. The results in this poll are based on 902 completed responses to the poll’s questionnaire from a random sample of Georgia registered voters who are likely to vote in the 2024 general election. Respondents completed the poll either through cell phone via MMS-to-web text (N=410) or through landline phone via Interactive Voice Response (N=492). The firm, Aristotle, provided the sample for both the cell phone and landline phone lists. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample of likely voters in this poll is +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. (Please note that all results of subsamples, such as those based on demographics or other factors, such as party identification, have a higher margin of sampling error.)
The data in this poll were weighted to a likely population of general election voters in Georgia based on various demographics, including age, education level, race/ethnicity, gender, region, party identification, and recalled vote from the 2020 presidential election. The results reported from the poll round off all percentages to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentage totals in some instances may be slightly higher or lower than 100%. The ECU Center for Survey Research, which directed this poll, is a member of the AAPOR Transparency Initiative (TI). For additional information about the ECU Poll and its methodology, please refer to the documentation provided in the TI report.
