The latest ECU Poll of North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race, conducted October 26 through 29, finds Democrat Roy Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley, 54% to 45%, with 1% supporting a minor-party or write-in candidate. The nine-point margin represents a slight increase from Cooper’s seven-point lead in our report last month. The poll has a credibility interval of ±3.5 percentage points, which is similar to a traditional margin of error.
Cooper’s strong lead can be attributed in part to his performance among independent voters, where he leads by 14 points, 56% to 42%. Cooper also holds a net-positive favorability rating, with 52% viewing him favorably and 39% unfavorably, while Whatley’s ratings are 34% favorable and 44% unfavorable.
When asked to identify the most important issue in deciding their vote in the upcoming election, 47% selected the economy, including concerns about the cost of living. Border security and/or immigration ranked a distant second at 12%, followed by the conflict with Iran and/or other foreign policy issues at 10%. The affordability of health care and crime and/or public safety were each cited by 7% of voters. Among those who selected the economy and cost of living as their most important issue, Cooper leads Whatley by a 2-to-1 margin, 67% versus 33%.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating in North Carolina continues to lag, with 42% approving and 54% disapproving of his performance.
Cooper leads Whatley among African American voters, 91% to 6%, while Whatley leads among white voters, 57% to 42%. Whatley also holds a slim lead among men, 50% to 48%, while Cooper leads by a substantial margin among women, 59% to 41%.
Among likely voters without a four-year college degree, Whatley holds a slight lead over Cooper, 51% to 49%. However, among those with a four-year college degree or higher, Cooper leads Whatley, 62% to 37%. Whatley leads among voters age 65 and older, 52% to 48%, while Cooper leads among those under age 65, 56% to 42%.
In assessing the full results of the poll, Dr. Peter Francia, Director of the ECU Center for Survey Research, remarked, “Roy Cooper’s lead over Michael Whatley has grown over the past several weeks from 7 to 9 percentage points in the latest ECU Poll. With Election Day almost upon us, and Whatley unable to close the gap, Cooper appears headed to a likely victory.”
Methodology
This ECU Poll was conducted October 26 through 29, 2026. The results are based on 1,041 completed responses to the poll’s questionnaire from North Carolina registered voters who have voted or are likely to vote in the 2026 general election. The survey combined a random sample of registered voters statewide with an online panel used to supplement responses from voters ages 18 to 29, Hispanic voters, and African American voters.
Respondents completed the survey via cell phone using MMS-to-web text (n = 508), with the sample provided by ReconMR via L2, and an interactive voice response (IVR) system using landline phones only (n = 236). The sampling design intentionally oversampled populations that are traditionally difficult to reach in public-opinion surveys. To supplement the data further, an online panel (n = 297) was provided by Bovitz. The L2 registered-voter file was supplemented with voter-matched cellphone numbers from MSG’s Advanced Cellphone Frame through its Voter Boost protocol. MSG screened the numbers for active service, and ReconMR conducted the text-to-web portion. Quality checks on the data were put in place to remove respondents who repeatedly rushed through questions, provided straight-line responses, or provided inconsistent answers.
The credibility interval (CI), which is similar to a margin of sampling error, is ±3.5 percentage points. (Please note that credibility intervals are larger for results based on subsamples, including demographic groups and party identification.) The data were weighted to reflect the population of likely 2026 general election voters in North Carolina based on age, education level, race/ethnicity, gender, region, and party identification, as well as election modeling based on previous statewide elections in North Carolina. All percentages are rounded to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentage totals in some instances may be slightly higher or lower than 100%.
The Center for Survey Research at East Carolina University conducts nonpartisan public opinion polling on elections, politics, and public policy issues in North Carolina and across the nation.
SOURCE: ECU Center for Survey Research
